What's in store for 2010/11?
Tuesday, July 13 2010
Fear is still very abundant in world economies and financial markets. The last few weeks have demonstrated that fundamental reasons and facts do little against fear and negative sentiment in share markets around the world.
Let's face our fears:
- The US must be able to sustain a successful economic recovery.
- Global economies depend on a strongly growing China which in turn might run the risk of overheating.
- European economies must reduce their debt and prop up exports to fix their problems.
In Australia we're exposed to international market forces and will remain the play ball of international and institutional investors.
On the home front, an imminent Federal election, the potential for strong commodity prices, jobs and housing market developments will give us some guidance. Normal interest rate levels combined with improving profit results of Corporate Australia could well translate into a rebound of our stock market once fear abates.
The Asian region and Australia show resilience that first must be rediscovered.
What to do?It is prudent to stay alert, review investment portfolios regularly, seek diversification options and avoid fear-driven exposures to problem markets.
In comparison to other historical falls in Australian equity markets such as in 1987, 1973 or 1929 we're about half way through a recovery. There are also voices out there that want to make us believe that we haven't seen the worst yet.
As an optimist and with the whole world pulling in the same direction of a necessary recovery I believe we'll have a bumpy road ahead but will be trending to better levels.
HT
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